Consolidation or other bitcoin drop?

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Many indicators and network analyzes show positive confluence, indicating a possible improvement in the market situation. For its part, technical analysis still points to the possibility of Bitcoin falling to new lows in 2022.

Bitcoin under $ 21,000

On July 26, the price of bitcoin rose up to $ 21,000, erasing most of the accumulated gains from the previous week and returning to the $ 23,300 to $ 18,500 range that Glassnode analysts call “the high and low of week 30”. A handful of analysts and traders write at the July 26-27 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) andalso predicted by the Federal Reserve interest rates as the main reason for this fall.

If it is not advertised in this way The US economy is not in a recessionSome traders believe the expected 75-100 basis points (BPS) rally will be followed by a rally that could see BTC, Ether (ETH) and other large cap altcoins. return to the top of the current rangeI. Of course, this feeling is reflected more speculation than serious analysisso you have to take it with pliers.

As BTC continues to trade in the same range, for 42 daysthe real question is whether the market will lead to more consolidation or another cycle of decline and eventual surrender

In their July 26 newsletter, Glassnode analysts say investors can find their “persuasion through merger” various technical and network indicatorswhich indicate it The pinnacle of devotion has long since disappeared. Rapid deleveraging has led to “extreme statistical discrepancies” in many measures, with analysts stating: The worst fall is probably over The price of bitcoin should have returned to the high zone of $ 20,000.

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Compared to various long-term, short-term and seller like indicators selling priceMayer multiplier and long-term daily and weekly moving averages, Glassnode suggests that the confluence of indicators and historical data suggests rising bullish momentum.

What does the technical analysis tell us about this soil potential?

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin’s move to $ 24,200 represents a brief breakout from the current range. false in a way but failure to maintain this momentum brings us back to the hypothesis new bottom bracket test in the middle of this range, close to the 20-day moving average priced at $ 21,500.

According to independent market analyst Mikael van de Poppe $ 21,600 was the BTC storage area. Below is the asset price behavior based on the FOMC comments this week.

The markets are correcting and it has been decided to hold $ 21.6K for #Bitcoin.

Now this is also a key factor if it breaks higher -> new highs.

Looking at a range of $ 20.5K to $ 20.7K for #Bitcoin tomorrow at the FOMC.

Self on. pic.twitter.com/tueXPNprza

– Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 26, 2022

CryptoISO expressed a similar opinion regarding the correlation of stocks with Bitcoin and the importance of the $ 21,500 area at the price of BTC.

Part of the push for the 21.5K zone on BTC was the NQ-backed merger.

This is no more.

Now I’m testing the twist again, but to be honest it all looks crap.

However, the sale until tomorrow is interesting.

If you are optimistic, you want to see it, but so far the gains are going too far. pic.twitter.com/rh5d3wKgjG

– CryptoISO (@crypto_iso) July 26, 2022

amateur fractals will find that the price in the current range looks eerily similar to the May 8 – July 12 – July 12 crash, but analysts will quickly point to various bad news, such as: Voyager, Celsius and 3AC explosion played an important role in this decline, while today it seems not no black swans on the horizonalthough by definition of this type never warns of catastrophic events …

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Either way, they both reflect periods Lateral consolidation from 34 to 42 daysand many times experienced trader Peter Brandt has described the current market structure as “bear rectangle “.

In case the pattern breaks below the current range, it will happen the price ranges from $ 14,500 to $ 13,000 something some retailers have long wanted. Finally, last week’s breakout of $ 24,200 range allowed the upper Bollinger bands to break out on July 20. Now that the price is below the BB midline, there is a greater chance that BTC will be trading lower. to the bottom lane what’s behind it ranges from $ 24,200 to $ 18,600.

Trading in this range does not cause much concern among observers. It will definitely take some time Wait for the catalytic converter to break or collapse know the next move. Perhaps, Results of the big tech companies On July 27, market conditions at the opening of the stock market and comments from the FOMC will determine which direction Bitcoin decides to go. For its part, Ethereum is also weakening after impressive growth in recent days.

For more information on the current bear market, read our latest article here.

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